Cracks appear in the Hezbollah-FPM alliance - Now Lebanon

As Parliament continues to fail at electing a new president, the alliance between Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement appears to be on shaky grounds amid a growing number of public disagreements. However, analysts say that the alliance will likely hold, with Hezbollah as the leader this time.

When the Shiite Hezbollah and the Maronite Christian Free Patriotic Movement signed the Mar Mikhael Agreement in 2006, it created waves in Lebanese politics that are felt over a decade later.

While much of Lebanon was piling into the March 14 camp that saw Syrian control over Lebanon come to an end in 2005, Hezbollah and the pro-Syria bloc were becoming increasingly isolated.

However, that changed when Michel Aoun, the founder and leader of the FPM, sat down with Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, to officialize their alliance.

The mutually beneficial relationship came to an all-time high in 2016, when Aoun was propelled into the presidency thanks to Hezbollah’s support. In doing so, Hezbollah ensured that they had an ally in Lebanon’s highest office that also served to provide them with a Christian cover, practically making Hezbollah the most dominant force in the country.

In the years since Aoun became president, though, this relationship has increasingly soured.

The cracks in the alliance first started to show in December 2021 when, in a televised speech, Aoun brought up the possibility of re-discussing the national defense strategy.

Then, at the start of January 2022, Aoun’s son-in-law and current leader of the FPM, Gebran Bassil, said that he “wants to develop” the agreement between the two parties.

Now, as Lebanon prepares to enter 2023 without a president, the distance between Hezbollah and its Christian ally appears to have widened, publically attacking each other in the media amid disagreements on who should be the next president and whether or not the government should be able to meet while there is no president.

“I am not saying that the Mar Mikhael Understanding failed,” Bassil told the Lebanese broadcaster LBCI. “Rather it is at stake.”

https://nowlebanon.com/cracks-appear-in-the-hezbollah-fpm-alliance/

Bukhari meets al-Rahi, urges new president and cooperative govt. - Naharnet

Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari on Tuesday held talks in Bkirki with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi, the state-run National News Agency said.

“Bukhari stressed the need to hold the presidential election as soon as possible and to form a government that would be in harmony with the president in order to revive the country,” Bkirki sources told LBCI television.

“The kingdom will not hesitate to carry out any effort that might be requested to help in the issue of the election,” the sources quoted Bukhari as telling al-Rahi.

https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/294454

Former Syrian Ambassador to Turkey Clarifies Damascus’ Position on Erdogan’s Latest Initiative - The Syrian Observer

Nidal Kabalan said there were no permanent enmity or permanent friendship, according to Athr Press.

In political circles, a surprise occurred in the form of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s announcement yesterday regarding his proposal — made to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin — to establish a trilateral initiative with Syria intended to accelerate the diplomatic track between Ankara and Damascus. The surprise came due to the lack of any actual subsequent developments since talking about the Turkish-Syrian rapprochement file.

According to Reuters, the Turkish president set out his vision for this track, starting with a meeting of the countries’ intelligence services, then defence ministers, and then foreign ministers. Ultimately, the track would culminate in a meeting of the presidents of the two countries.

Russia met the Turkish offer receptively, as the Russian Foreign Ministry expressed optimism and welcomed Erdogan’s proposal.

On the Syrian position on the recent Turkish offer, Nidal Kabalan, the former Syrian ambassador to Turkey, said in an interview with the Al-Sharq TV channel: “The future between the two countries must be viewed from the standpoint of political foundations. This is because there is no permanent enmity or permanent friendship; instead, there is an intertwining of interests. Turkey paid the price, as did Syria, in this war. It is in everyone’s interest to turn over a new page in history. But it must happen on firm and solid foundations through trust, sincerity of intentions and dealing with difficult issues with determination.”

“Damascus does not judge words, but rather waits for actions by the Turkish president, including the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syrian territory, the cessation of support for terrorist groups, and the return of the Syrian state’s control over Idlib,” Kabalan explained.

On how Damascus and Ankara deal with the Kurdish file, Kabalan said: “The issue of the Kurds is the only point on which Syria, Turkey, Iraq and Iran agree to prevent the establishment of separatist entities along ethnic lines. Therefore it is the focus of consensus amongst these four countries.”

“Turkey should not limit its focus on terrorism to the Kurdish issue. There are dozens of terrorist organizations, whose militants hail from more than 84 countries, and they are still fighting on Syrian territory with the support of Turkey and other countries. In these circumstances, how can they be described as the Syrian opposition?”

https://syrianobserver.com/news/80876/former-syrian-ambassador-to-turkey-clarifies-damascus-position-on-erdogans-latest-initiative.html

Şam’da petrol krizi - Hürriyet

Önemli petrol sahaları rejim kontrolü dışında kalan Suriye’de ağır enerji krizi yaşanıyor. Başkent Şam’da evler ısıtılamazken, sokaklarda araç sayısı giderek azalıyor. Karaborsada bir depo benzin, iki aylık memur maaşına eşdeğerde.

Savaşın on yıldır sürdüğü Suriye’de enerji krizi yaşanıyor. Petrol ve benzeri ürünlerin karneyle satıldığı ülkede resmi akaryakıt fiyatı sadece bu yıl 4 kez arttırıldı. İş çıkış saatlerinde artık Şam sokaklarında Trafik sıkışıklığı yaşanmıyor. Birçok sürücü acil durumlar dışında araçlarını evde bırakıyor. Üniversiteler, akaryakıt krizi yüzünden haftada sadece üç gün ders yapıyor.

TAKSİLER GEZMİYOR

Eskiden haftada bir ucuz yakıt alma hakkı tanınan taksilere artık sadece ayda bir uygun fiyatlı yakıt veriliyor. Bu, taksi ücretlerinin artmasına yol açtı. Haber ajansı AFP’ye konuşan 39 yaşındaki taksici Bassam Zahrawi, artık Şam sokaklarında dolaşmadığını, ancak bir müşteri ararsa aracını çalıştırdığını, bu sayede yakıt tasarrufu yapmaya çalıştığını söyledi. Zahrawi, ayda bir verilen ucuz yakıtın sadece 2 gün yettiğinden şikâyet etti.

BİR DEPO İKİ AYLIK MAAŞ

Karaborsada litresi 1 Dolar olan yakıtın fiyatı bu kışla birlikte ikiye katlandı. Ülkede ortalama memur maaşı aylık 21 dolar. Yani bir depo benzin, iki aylık maaşa eşdeğerde. Suriyeliler yakıt kıtlığından ötürü Batı yaptırımlarını suçluyor. Ülkedeki önemli Petrol sahaları rejimin değil, YPG/PKK’nın kontrolündeki alanlarda bulunuyor. Öte yandan ABD yaptırımları, Suriye’ye petrol ihracatını önemli ölçüde kısıtlıyor.

https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/samda-petrol-krizi-42189798

Syria's blessing required for Lebanon to uncover its gas riches - Middle East Eye

Exploration in Lebanon's Block 9 to start soon; other energy reserves remain inaccessible without settling maritime borders with Syria 

Before Lebanon can reap any major benefits from its supposedly lucrative offshore gas and oil reserves, the energy-starved country will have to resolve its maritime border dispute with Syria.

The two countries' maritime zones overlap by about 750 sq km, including a region where Syria has awarded contracts to two Russian companies to begin oil and gas exploration in the territory Lebanon also claims.

Lebanon in October resolved its maritime dispute with Israel under a US-brokered deal, which paved the way for French oil giant TotalEnergies and Italy's ENI to begin natural gas exploration in the Qana field in the country's southern waters.

However, until Lebanon's maritime borders with Cyprus and Syria are clearly demarcated, companies will remain reluctant to invest in gas and oil exploration in the rest of Lebanon's maritime zone, leaving the majority of the country's potential reserves still inaccessible. 

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/syria-lebanon-gas-exploration-blessing

Al-Rahi lashes out at Hezbollah over UNIFIL, Rmeish - Naharnet

 Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Sunday hit out at Hezbollah without naming it over two recent issues.

Voicing deep grief over “the assassination of the Irish soldier three days ago,” al-Rahi said that this UNIFIL peacekeeper “who came to Lebanon to protect the peace of the South has been martyred by a hatred bullet that assassinated him.”

“It’s about time, and it has long been overdue, that the state put its hand on every unruly and illegitimate weapon,” al-Rahi added, in his Sunday Mass sermon.

The Lebanese state “should implement Resolution 1701 in text and spirit, because so far its implementation has been selective, arbitrary and confined to the decision of the de facto forces,” al-Rahi went on to say, in an apparent swipe at Hezbollah and its arsenal of weapons.

Also criticizing Hezbollah without naming it, the patriarch said the residents of the southern border town of Rmeish have been decrying “violations against their land and bulldozing and construction activities by influential parties in the area.”

https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/294423

Turkey seeks a trilateral mechanism with Russia, Syria -Erdogan - The Jerusalem Post

 Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan was quoted on Thursday as saying he proposed to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin forming a trilateral mechanism with Russia and Syria to accelerate diplomacy between Ankara and Damascus.

Broadcaster Haberturk cited Erdogan as telling reporters after a trip to Turkmenistan that he offered to Putin initiating a series of meetings between Turkey, Russia and Syria to revisit long-strained relations with Damascus.

"First our intelligence agencies, then defence ministers, and then foreign ministers (of the three countries) could meet. After their meetings we as the leaders may come together. I offered it to Mr Putin and he has a positive view on it," Erdogan was cited as saying.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-724939

Hezbollah officials, Maronite League head urge end to presidential void - Naharnet

Hezbollah’s “Christian relations” official Mohammed Saeed al-Khansa and Hezbollah official Abdullah Zaiour met Thursday with Maronite League chief Khalil Karam at the League’s headquarters.

Congratulating Karam over his election as the new head of the League and offering Christmas and New Year greetings, the two Hezbollah officials held a lengthy discussion with Karam over the situation in Lebanon.

https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/294370

Jumblat says dialogue welcome across continents but not in Lebanon - Naharnet

Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat said Wednesday that "we accept transcontinental dialogue but we reject it at home."

In a statement on social media, Jumblat said that we accept dialogue across continents and through football, but not in Lebanon.

"We may reach China if America agrees, France gives its blessing, and Saudi Arabia approves," Jumblat went on to say. "But we reject it in Lebanon," he added.

Berri had announced last week that he would turn Thursday’s presidential election session into a dialogue if the blocs agree to such a move. But later this week, dialogue was cancelled, after the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement refused to participate in the dialogue.

https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/294326

Protests Return to Suweida; Demonstrators Call for General Strike in Syria - The Syrian Observer

Dozens of protesters gathered in al-Sir Square in the center of the city of Suweida on Sunday, according to Syria TV.

The protests returned to the governorate of Suweida, on Sunday, after a week of similar popular protests, in which hundreds of people demonstrated in protest against the poor living conditions. Demonstrators stormed buildings of the governorate and raised political slogans demanding the fall of the Syrian regime.

The “Suwayda 24” page published a video showing the gathering of dozens of protesters in al-Sir Square in the center of the city of Suweida on Sunday. They are demonstrating to denounce the deterioration of living conditions and the failure of the regime government to provide services.

The demonstrators called on the people in the Syrian governorates to a general strike and civil disobedience, including all government and private sectors and the sit-in until the rights of the people are met, chanting phrases such as: “One, one, one, Syrian people are one.”

https://syrianobserver.com/news/80726/protests-return-to-suweida-demonstrators-call-for-general-strike-in-syria.html

Four Reasons Behind the Accelerated Collapse of the Pound - The Syrian Observer

On Sunday, the exchange rate of the Syrian pound collapsed to the level of 6,050 against the dollar, according to Orient Net.

The Syrian pound has recently witnessed a continuous decline at a steady pace, exceeding 6,000 pounds per U.S. dollar for the first time in its history. This comes in conjunction with the exacerbation of economic crises plaguing the areas controlled by the Assad regime, especially the fuel crisis, which caused paralysis of vital sectors amid the regime’s inability to find any solutions.

On Sunday, the exchange rate of the Syrian pound collapsed to the level of 6,050 against the dollar, according to the site Lira Today specialized in monitoring the prices of the Syrian currency. It has lost a fifth of its value before foreign currencies during the past two months.

With the Syrian pound continuing to bleed at an almost regular pace over the past three weeks, expectations suggest it could fall to unprecedented lows.

Regarding the reasons for the recent decline in the value of the Syrian pound, economic analyst Dr. Yahya Al-Sayed Omar told Orient Net that this is due to a number of internal and external reasons.

Internal causes

Mr. Omar stated that the internal reasons are related to the increase in demand for the dollar and the increase in the supply of the pound in the Syrian market. He explained that the increase in demand for the dollar is due to the need to import additional quantities of fuel from the international market as a result of the almost complete lack of electricity, which led to an increase in dependence on fuel as a main carrier of energy. The import of fuel leads to a sharp increase in demand for the dollar.

He pointed out that the increase in the supply of the pound is due to several factors, including the exaggeration of relying on deficit financing through the continued printing of the Syrian pound without a parallel production balance. The Syrian banking system has completely lost its effectiveness, as the majority of the Syrian currency is outside banks. Companies and individuals do not deposit in banks unless they are obligated to do so.

https://syrianobserver.com/news/80724/four-reasons-behind-the-accelerated-collapse-of-the-pound.html

Al-Rahi renews call for 'internationalizing Lebanese cause' - Naharnet

Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Sunday reiterated his call for “heading to the U.N. and world powers to rescue Lebanon before it’s too late.”

“The internationalization of the Lebanese cause is inevitable after the failure of all domestic solutions,” al-Rahi said in his Sunday Mass sermon.

“It is notable that those who are foiling the domestic solutions are the same ones who are rejecting internationalization. When the Lebanese solution is being blocked and internationalization is being rejected, this means that these parties do not want any solution for the Lebanese situation,” the patriarch lamented.

“They want Lebanon to be as they want or not be, but everyone must know that Lebanon will be like all its loyal sons want it to be,” al-Rahi went on to say.

https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/294269

After deadly unrest in Sweida, Syria asks: Is there more to come? - Middle East Eye

The southern province of Sweida has proven itself an exception in Syria over the past decade. Largely spared fighting, its Druze-majority residents have even occasionally staged furious protests against authorities in Damascus without severe reprisals.

Yet as flames licked up the walls of the governorate building on al-Mashnaqa (Gallows) Square on Sunday, and news broke of a protester and a policeman killed, Syrians of Sweida sensed that these latest demonstrations over the rapidly deteriorating economic situation were "unprecedented".

Sweida enjoys semi-autonomous rule where Druze militiamen known as Rijal al-Karameh (Men of Dignity) are largely responsible for its security. 

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/syria-sweida-after-deadly-unrest-more-come

Army commander begins visit to Qatar - Naharnet

 Army Commander General Joseph Aoun on Saturday traveled to Qatar at an invitation from its deputy PM and foreign minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, the army said.

The army chief “will discuss means to support the army during this period,” the army added in a statement.

Recent media reports had said that Qatar had “strongly” waded into the Lebanese presidential file in terms of negotiating with Iran.

https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/294261

Türkiye-Suriye yakınlaşması henüz çok uzak - Şarkul Avsat

Medyada Suriye-Türkiye yakınlaşması ile ilgili pek çok tahmin öne sürüldü. Geçtiğimiz Cuma günü, aralarında Kremlin Sözcüsü ve Rusya'nın Suriye Özel Temsilcisi’nin de olduğu Rus yetkililer, Moskova'nın Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan ile Esed arasında bir görüşme ayarlamaya çalıştığını belirtti. Ancak ben yakın zamanda Moskova'da ‘gülümseyen’ bir Esed ile bir araya gelip el sıkışan ‘somurtkan’ bir Erdoğan fotoğrafı görmeyi beklemiyorum.

Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ve Suriye Devlet Başkanı Beşşar Esed, tek bir konuda hemfikir o da Suriye'deki Kürt bölgelerinde gerçek bir özerklik kurulmasını reddetmek. Geçtiğimiz Kasım ayında Kazakistan'ın başkenti Astana'da Suriye konusunda yapılan bir toplantıda Türkler, Esed'in müttefikleriyle -İranlılar ve Ruslar- ‘Suriye'nin toprak bütünlüğünü bozmayı ve komşu ülkelerin ulusal güvenliğini tehdit etmeyi amaçlayan daha fazla ayrılıkçı plana’ karşı koyma konusunda bir kez daha anlaştılar.

Söz konusu mesaj öncelikle, PYD’yi ve ardından PKK ve ABD askeri koruması altındaki Kuzey ve Doğu Suriye Özerk Yönetimi ile bağlantısı olan PYD'ye bağlı Halk  Koruma Birlikleri (YPG)’yi hedef alıyor.

PYD ve milisleri gitmelerini istemedikçe ABD’lilerin kısa vadede yerlerinden kıpırdamayacaklarını düşünüyorum. PYD, büyük çaplı herhangi bir Türk askeri operasyonunu engellemek için Washington ile Şam ve Moskova arasında dengeyi sağlamayı başardı.

https://turkish.aawsat.com/home/article/4033616/robert-ford/t%C3%BCrkiye-suriye-yak%C4%B1nla%C5%9Fmas%C4%B1-hen%C3%BCz-%C3%A7ok-uzak

Clan conflicts in Syria: Seeds of revenge grow under the ashes amid attempts to renew customary law - Syria Direct

 PARIS — In the eastern Deir e-Zor town of Ghranij, a 25-year vendetta was put to rest last month. Through efforts by a number of clan sheikhs and notables in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-controlled area, on November 10 the al-Khalifa al-Nayef and al-Aghdab al-Hamada families of the al-Shaytat clan finally agreed to a reconciliation agreement. 

But even as one ember of clan conflict was extinguished in Deir e-Zor, another was ignited in Inkhil, a city in the regime-held northern Daraa countryside, hundreds of kilometers to the southwest. There, a young man, Rami al-Waked, was killed on November 7. His family laid blame for his death with “evildoers and bandits from the al-Doukhi family” in a statement. 

“The family of the murder victim, Rami Awad al-Waked, and the entire al-Eid family, declare that everyone who took part in the treachery is a legitimate target, and everyone who harbors one of the criminals is an accomplice,” it concluded. 

The identities of Rami’s individual killers were not known, but his family accused young men from the al-Doukhi family because of what began as a recent dispute between children from the two families, and turned into a brawl between young men. Ultimately, fighters from a military group commanded by Abdul Hakim al-Waked—affiliated with the 8th Brigade led by former opposition commander Ahmed al-Awda—attacked and beat a young man from the al-Doukhi family. After that, Rami al-Waked was murdered. 

https://syriadirect.org/clan-conflicts-in-syria-seeds-of-revenge-grow-under-the-ashes-amid-attempts-to-renew-customary-law/

Intelligence Threatens Laith Balous, Vows to Burn Suweida - The Syrian Observer

Laith Balous received a direct and sectarian threat, by the head of the Air Force Intelligence Department in Syria, Major General Ghassan Ismail, according to Baladi News.

The regime’s intelligence services have threatened Laith al-Balous, commander of the Men of Dignity forces, that it will burn Suweida in response to the forces’ demonstrations against the regime.

“Laith Balous received a direct and sectarian threat, by the head of the Air Force Intelligence Department in Syria, Major General Ghassan Ismail, as a result of the governorate’s demonstrations against the regime,” reported the Suwayda ANS network.

According to the network, Ismail threatened to burn Suweida in retaliation against young men who demonstrated against the regime. He threatened Balous directly because he had appeared in photos standing next to the demonstrators.

The network added that Ismail also threatened to burn and destroy the Al-Karama house, on top of charging Sheikh Wahid Balous with treason and working for foreign powers.

In response, Laith Balous said that the threat does not frighten the dignity movement, nor does it frighten the people of Suweida. He indicated that it is normal for these groups to receive such threats because the regime and its security authority know no other way to deal with all Syrians — not just the people of Suwayda.

https://syrianobserver.com/news/80658/intelligence-threatens-laith-balous-vows-to-burn-suweida.html

Lübnan Meclisindeki 9. oturumda da yeni cumhurbaşkanı seçilemedi - Anadolu Ajansı

 Lübnan Meclisinde yeni cumhurbaşkanını seçmek için düzenlenen 9. oturumda da hiçbir aday yeterli oyu alamadı.

Mecliste, 31 Ekim'de görev süresi sona eren Cumhurbaşkanı Mişel Avn’ın yerine gelecek ismi seçmek için düzenlenen toplantıya 128 milletvekilinden 105'i katıldı.

Adaylardan Mişel Muavvad 39 oy alırken, 39 oy geçersiz sayıldı, kalan 27 oy ise diğer adaylara verildi. Buna göre hiçbir aday cumhurbaşkanı seçilmek için gerekli 3'te 2'lik çoğunluğu sağlayamadı.

Meclis Başkanı Nabih Berri, yeni cumhurbaşkanı seçimi için bir sonraki oturumun 15 Aralık'ta düzenleneceğini açıkladı.

Lübnan Meclisi, yeni cumhurbaşkanını seçmek için ilk oturumunu 29 Eylül’de yapmıştı.

Eski Cumhurbaşkanı Avn da 31 Ekim 2016’da Mecliste düzenlenen 46’ncı oturumun sonunda seçilebilmişti.

https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/lubnan-meclisindeki-9-oturumda-da-yeni-cumhurbaskani-secilemedi/2758670

Lebanon arrests of Israel spy suspects surge amid crisis - Naharnet

Lebanon has arrested 185 people suspected of collaborating with enemy state Israel since its economic collapse three years ago left many Lebanese desperate for cash, two security sources told AFP Wednesday.

That number has jumped significantly from a previous average of four or five arrests a year, one of the sources said.

"This is the first time that so many people have been arrested on charges of collaborating with Israel, and it's because of the crisis," said the other security source. Both were speaking on condition of anonymity.

Lebanon has been battered by a severe financial and economic crisis since 2019 that has seen the national currency crash, led banks to freeze deposits and plunged much of the population into dire poverty.

https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/294183

Lübnan’ın seçenekleri: Ya Batı köleliği ya Doğu ticareti - Harici

Gazeteci Sharmine Narwani, ülkenin içinde bulunduğu krizin uzun vadeli çözümü için devletin, anayasasının ve uygulamalarının tamamen revize edilmesi gerektiğini söylüyor. Narwani’ye göre, Lübnan güçlü bir Batı müttefiki olarak görülseydi fişi çekilmezdi.

2019’dan bu yana tarihinin en ciddi ekonomik krizlerinden biriyle mücadele eden Lübnan, siyasi olarak da sıkıntıda. Mayıs ayında yapılan seçimlerden beri hükümet kurulamadı. Meclis’teki siyasi gruplar ekim sonunda görev süresi dolan Cumhurbaşkanı Mişel Avn’ın koltuğu için uzlaşma sağlayamadı. Ekonomik krizin her geçen gün halkı daha da vurduğu ülke, şu an yetkisi kısıtlı, geçici hükümetle yönetiliyor. Ülkenin içinde bulunduğu ekonomik ve siyasi krizi, IMF görüşmelerini, bir süre önce Tel Aviv’le imzalanan deniz yetki sınırlandırma anlaşması ile İsrail seçim sonuçlarının Beyrut’ta nasıl yankılandığını Lübnan’ı yakından tanıyan gazeteci Sharmine Narwani ile konuştuk.

https://harici.com.tr/lubnanin-secenekleri-ya-bati-koleligi-ya-dogu-ticareti/