The Syrian regime has recently made significant gains against the military opposition. At this point, the Syrian army is trying to prevent external support of the opposition. First of all, they are striving to control the Lebanese border through the Qalamoun operation. Parallel to this operation, heavy conflicts have been taking place around Aleppo. The regime is planning to seize control in Aleppo and turn towards Azaz, and also to take control of the border with Turkey.
The regime has launched a Hezbollah-backed operation in the Qalamoun Mountains located at the Lebanese borderline between Damascus and Homs. It might be suggested that the operation being carried out has two targets. The first is to seize control of the borderline, and thus to cut the logistical support provided from Lebanon to the military opposition in Syria. Besides, this borderline is one of the major entry points for Syrian opposition forces. If the regime forces are successful in fully seizing the area, the opposition’s entry into Syria would be limited. The second goal is to connect Damascus and Homs to each other. A major step has already been taken to this end through the Qusayr operation. If the opposition were to lose control of the Qalamoun region, the regime’s forces would have control over the Damascus-Homs corridor to a large extent. This situation would be an advantage for the regime in the Tartous and Latakia provinces, where it is already in control. Furthermore, the connection between the opposition groups in eastern Damascus and northwestern rural areas would be cut.