"And I have found both freedom and safety in my madness, the freedom of loneliness and the safety from being understood, for those who understand us enslave something in us. But let me not be too proud of my safety. Even a Thief in a jail is safe from another thief. "

Khalil Gibran (How I Became a Madman)

Lübnan Marunîleri / Yasin Atlıoğlu

NEWS AND ARTICLES / HABERLER VE MAKALELER

Friday, January 05, 2018

Analysis: What Lies Ahead for Syria in 2018- News Deeply

The coming year in Syria will likely be marked by reconciliation deals, partial economic recovery and, ultimately, Assad continuing to hold power in the country, according to Syria expert Fabrice Balance.

THIS YEAR MAY not yet be one of peace in Syria, but 2018 may be the last year of this brutal conflict. It has become clear that President Bashar al-Assad and his allies have won the war. For its part, the West, persuaded that the Assad camp does not have the means to rehabilitate Syria, is counting on leveraging reconstruction to influence a political transition. But just as it was mistaken on the military conflict, it is also mistaken on this issue.

On the military front, the offensive in Idlib will be a priority in 2018. However, it is necessary for the Syrian army to also finish with the last rebel enclaves around Damascus and the pocket of Rastan. Recovering the eastern suburbs of Damascus will be difficult but is likely to end – as offensives have elsewhere – by way of reconciliation deal and transfer of armed rebels to Idlib.

Daraa province is unlikely to be spared from fighting, despite the de-escalation agreement between Russia and the U.S. The Syrian army hopes to reopen the highway to Jordan at the Nassib border crossing, which would entail seizing the eastern part of the province, between the Daraa-Damascus road and the Jabal Druze. As for the western part of the province, between the Daraa-Damascus road and the Golan, the situation is more or less frozen due to a Russian-American agreement in which Vladimir Putin guaranteed that Hezbollah and Iranian forces would not approach within 25 miles (40km) of the 1973 cease-fire line. Russia wants this agreement as it gives Moscow a significant diplomatic role in the Arab-Israeli conflict.