Of a larger conflict, retired Lebanese Brig. Gen. Naji Mlaeb told Breaking Defense, "Hezbollah is ready but it doesn't want it, while Israel wants [it] but is not ready" to fight on two fronts. That may soon change.
BEIRUT — US President Joe Biden may be hopeful that a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is days away, but former senior Lebanese military officials here have told Breaking Defense that whatever happens in the embattled enclave, there’s more reason than ever to fear the conflict is on the verge of escalating on another front with an Israeli ground incursion into southern Lebanon.
The possibility of a wider war in the south, where Israeli forces and the armed group Hezbollah have been trading deadly fire for months, “is not an exaggeration. As long as Israel considers Hezbollah an existential threat, a ground offensive is more probable,” retired Lebanese Armed Forces Brig. Gen. Maroun Hitti said in a phone interview. “The prospective escalation of war is more expected than ever.”
Despite some heated rhetoric on both sides, until now both Israel and Hezbollah appeared wary of broadening the conflict. As another retired Lebanese Armed Forces brigadier general, Naji Mlaeb, put it, “Hezbollah is ready [for a larger conflict] but it doesn’t want it, while Israel wants [larger conflict] but is not ready” to fight on two fronts.
However, Israeli military officials have maintained that Jerusalem will no longer accept what it calls the security threat to Israelis who live near the border with Lebanon. In January Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that even if Hezbollah were to stop launching rockets “unilaterally, Israel will not cease fire until it guarantees the safe return of residents of the north to their homes” and added Israel was “preparing to create a safe situation for the return of residents, also through military means” should diplomatic efforts fail.
That, observers fear, was an allusion to at least a limited ground invasion, especially after Gallant said on Tuesday that Hezbollah’s “aggression is bringing us closer to a critical point in decision-making regarding our military activities in Lebanon.”
Last week CNN reported that US intelligence and administration officials were increasingly worried Israel may decide to launch an incursion into Lebanon “perhaps later this spring” in the words of one official. “An Israeli military operation is a distinct possibility,” the official said.