Recent Russian activity in Syria is not about combating the Islamic State, despite Russian claims to the contrary. Though actively fighting ISIS and thus propagating its long-stated goal of keeping Assad in power would seem to be the straightforward explanation for Russia’s recent behavior, the fact that Russian strikes are also hitting U.S.-backed, rebel-held areas demonstrates the hollowness of official discourse.
An examination of Russian national security interests helps clarify the reasons behind this recent activity. Russia’s power projection in Syria supports two interdependent security interests. The first is to keep the port at Tartus open to Russian naval vessels as a gateway to facilitating regional military power. The second is to keep Russian political presence and influence planted firmly in the Middle East. Both goals place Russia and Iran in conflict with one another.