Territory controlled by the Islamic State shrunk by 12 percent in the first six months of 2016, according to new analysis released today by IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of critical information and insight.
In 2015, the Islamic State’s caliphate shrunk by 12,800 km2 to 78,000 km2, a net loss of 14 percent. In the first six months of 2016, that territory shrunk again by 12 percent. As of 4 July 2016, the Islamic State controls roughly 68,300 km2 in Iraq and Syria, which is roughly the size of Ireland or the US state of West Virginia.
“Over the past 18 months, the Islamic State has continued to lose territory at an increasing rate,” said Columb Strack, senior analyst at IHS and lead analyst for the IHS Conflict Monitor. “As the Islamic State’s caliphate shrinks and it becomes increasingly clear that its governance project is failing, the group is re-prioritizing insurgency. As a result, we unfortunately expect an increase in mass casualty attacks and sabotage of economic infrastructure, across Iraq and Syria, and further afield, including Europe.”