Events on the ground are fluid in the eastern Syrian city and province, but dynamics suggest Syrian forces and their backers will prevail over the Islamic State and U.S.-supported fighters.
Much recent speculation has focused on the future of Syria's Deir al-Zour city and province. A major cause of such speculation has been debate over the U.S. view of Iran's role in Syria -- in particular, its goal of creating a land bridge from Tehran to Beirut. Indeed, on-the-ground military movements suggest Deir al-Zour will be reconquered by the Syrian army and its allies.
CITY ENCIRCLED BY THE ISLAMIC STATE
In 2012, the Syrian army lost half of Deir al-Zour city and, quickly thereafter, the whole province to rebel forces. Whereas the government-held part of Deir al-Zour is connected by a road to Homs via Tadmur (ancient Palmyra), in May 2015 the Islamic State seized Tadmur, isolating Syrian army soldiers amid a vast territory controlled by the jihadists. Indeed, government-run land shrank after successive IS offensives. Previously, neighborhoods under regime control were supplied from the airport, but in January 2017 the government lost control of the road connecting the city to the airport, ending this arrangement. To stave off a final assault, Syrian-regime, Russian, and even Iranian forces are relentlessly bombing the IS frontlines with missiles. Thanks to helicopter support, communication with the outside remains possible, and cargo planes drop enough goods to feed the 100,000 civilians who still reside in the government-run area.
The staunch defense of Deir al-Zour put up by the Syrian regime and its allies is rooted in their intention to ultimately reconquer eastern Syria. This role has been entrusted to one of Syria's best generals, Issam Zahreddine, who relies on battalions of the Republican Guard, the elite troops of the Syrian army. In January 2017, hundreds of Hezbollah fighters were sent as reinforcements to Deir al-Zour, which had been mauled by an IS offensive. The National Defense Army, one of the Syrian regime's paramilitary forces, has mobilized all males older than fifteen in this effort. Also assisting the Syrian army are six hundred fighters of the al-Shaitat tribe, who are seeking to avenge the massacre perpetrated by IS against their villages.