Southern Syria, particularly the city of Daraa at the border triangle with Jordan and Israel, has been a stage for competition among various regional and international forces. The flames of escalation have not died down for 13 years, ever since the spark of the Syrian revolution ignited from there. The tension has remained smoldering under the ashes of agreements and security settlements with the presence of military points and factions of different affiliations.
Although the region is implicitly considered under regime control, many details contradict this notion, especially with the repeated targeting of its forces. Local military groups are spread across Daraa’s towns and villages, each managing its own area and coordinating among themselves. The regime struggles to enter any of these areas without notifying their local factions and leaders.
The issue is not purely internal, as international actors have influenced the region. Many transformations are attributed to Russian interventions, while Iran has left an impact on its security situation. The former role of the United States and Jordan cannot be ignored; the factions in the area were internationally supported through the Military Operations Center (MOC). Even though this center’s work has ended, the province’s location on the southern border near the American base in al-Tanf keeps it within the interests of these two countries, and perhaps also Israel, which is concerned about Iran’s expansion towards the border.
Today, six years after the first settlement allowed regime forces into Daraa, the province remains relatively outside its control. Numerous armed factions are spread across it, some administratively tied to the Military Intelligence (military security) and other regime security apparatuses, while others oppose the regime.
The southern province experiences a state of stalemate that external forces do not wish to change, in light of the regional and international conflicts affecting Syria’s interior, especially Daraa, which lies on the southern borders with Israel and Jordan. This area forms a weak spot through which security could be destabilized.
In this file, Enab Baladi discusses the stages of the development of the security situation in Daraa province, southern Syria, covering two major security settlements and significant security events that altered the shape of the internal conflict, favoring some factions over others.
https://english.enabbaladi.net/archives/2024/09/daraa-stuck-in-stalemate-despite-control-changes/