Negotiations between representatives of the Assad regime and its opponents are expected to be held in Moscow from January 26-29, 2015. The Russian authorities’ purpose in arranging this meeting is to promote the idea that Syrian reconciliation can be achieved through dialogue between all non-extremist Syrian groups and without involvement from outside.
At first glance the main impetus for holding the negotiations is not a bad one. The meeting has two likely goals. On the one hand, the Russian authorities would like to make another attempt at launching dialogue between Damascus and its opponents. This is especially important now that the Syrian government and opposition forces both face the threat of the Islamic State (IS), but instead of joining to fight this arch-enemy they continue to weaken one another through continuous fighting. On the other hand, the Russians would like to resolve one of the main problems that has plagued negotiations between Damascus and the opposition: namely, the factionalism of the latter. It is not a coincidence that Moscow has arranged the talks in two stages: the dialogue between the Syrian government and its opponents will take place only on the meeting’s second day, while the first day will be devoted completely to consultations between different opposition groups in order to provide them with time to work out a joint position on the negotiations with Damascus. As stated in the Russian media, Moscow has already forwarded invitations to about thirty different people representing a variety of opposition forces.
Yet, gathering the representatives of all non-jihadist groups of anti-Assad fighters in Moscow will probably remain a dream of the Russian government, and nothing more. Even the reserved blessing of the meeting by the Americans will not change this. Thus, while the representatives of the National Coordination Council and some other members of the moderate inner opposition are ready to participate in Moscow, the external opposition (most importantly, the National Coalition for Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces) has excluded the possibility of participation. Those who have decided to ignore the meeting in the Russian capital have a few motivations. First, as Khaled Khoja, head of the Syrian National Coalition, has said, contact between the different groups in the Syrian opposition has already been established, so there is no need to meet in Moscow to do this. Secondly, for the majority of the opposition it is still hard to recognize Assad as a legitimate participant to negotiations on Syria and its future. Thirdly, opposition members are confused by the fact that the Russian initiative seems an attempt to reset negotiations on Syria and start the discussion from scratch. According to Khoja’s predecessor, Hadi al-Bahra, participation in the Moscow meeting would mean that all previous agreements are put aside and any progress achieved is forgotten (although there is scant evidence of any such progress). Finally, the Russian government is considered to be involved in the conflict. As a result, members of the Syrian opposition raise the logical question as to whether Moscow will be able to arrange a comfortable negotiation environment for all participants, and not only for those representing Damascus? Moreover, as stated by a number of regional analysts, some parts of the opposition still believe that only a military solution in Syria is possible.