Despite its potential short-term political benefits for the AKP, a ground incursion into northern Syria could pose numerous longer-term threats to Turkey, including renewed Kurdish separatism, economic retaliation by Russia, and armed reprisals by the Assad regime, the PYD, and ISIS.
Recent media reports suggest that Turkey could be preparing a military incursion inside Syria. Specifically, Turkish forces may be aiming to seize a fifty-five-mile-long stretch of territory from Azaz in the west to Jarabulus in the east, establishing a twenty-mile-deep cordon sanitaire against the violence next door and creating a staging ground for pro-Turkey Syrian rebels.
The Justice and Development (AKP) government received authorization from parliament last October to deploy troops in Syria or Iraq if necessary, and on July 2, the opposition Nationalist Action Party (MHP) -- which is in coalition talks with the AKP -- signaled its support for such an operation. Nevertheless, other Turkish domestic considerations bet against such an operation, with potential obstacles including a reluctant military, lack of public support, and opposition from the Republican People's Party (CHP) and Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP). These factors raise questions about what Ankara might gain and lose from taking action in Syria.
BLOCK THE PYD'S WESTWARD MARCH
Until recently, the Syrian side of Turkey's 510-mile border was controlled by a plethora of actors, including the pro-Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), the "Islamic State"/ISIS, Jaish al-Fatah (dominated by al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra), and moderate elements of the rebel Free Syrian Army.
The PYD is linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which Turkey fought for decades until entering peace talks with the group in 2012. The PYD has controlled three isolated enclaves in Syria for some time: Afrin in the northwest, Kobane in the north-central region, and Jazeera in the northeast. In May -- with the help of U.S. airstrikes -- the group seized a nearly sixty-mile stretch of ISIS territory between the Jazeera and Kobane enclaves, effectively establishing a 250-mile-long PYD-controlled zone. Ankara now fears that the group may decide to link all three of its enclaves by moving further west and capturing territory between Azaz and Jarabulus.