Three months after its “split” from al Qaeda, which in reality is simply a feint, Jabhat Fateh al Sham (JFS), formerly known as Jabhat al Nusra, may pose a more significant long-term threat to the West than the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
While the West targets ISIS, JFS is quietly laying the groundwork for al Qaeda's resurgence by “hunkering down,” rebuilding, and repositioning itself along several fronts. This should come as no surprise — al Qaeda and its affiliates are nothing if not resilient.
With approximately 10,000 fighters, JFS is now both the largest al Qaeda franchise and by many accounts, the most lethal, eclipsing the capabilities of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). As a failed state on the periphery of Europe, Syria is the ideal staging ground for al Qaeda to rejuvenate its global campaign of terrorism through JFS.
Veteran al Qaeda leaders like Saif al-Adl are thought to be among the current leadership directing JFS strategy in Syria. A critical centerpiece of this strategy is seeking consent of locals and working to garner political legitimacy in Sunni-dominated parts of northwest Syria, where JFS has established an enclave.