After five years of delay, Lebanese go to the polls May 6 to elect a new parliament for the first time since 2009. The ultimate objective of this popular vote is to readjust the power representation of the same ruling class and set its rules of engagement for the next four years. The 2018 general elections will be held for the first time under the proportional rather than the majoritarian system, with a revised gerrymandering of 15 districts (as opposed to 26 in 2009). It is safe to argue that the winners of nearly 70% of the seats have been predetermined due to the confessional nature of the political system.
The electoral law reflects the current political landscape in Lebanon, where alliances are volatile and no single coalition alone can rule the country. Moreover, these legislative elections are held against the background of two significant developments: the repercussions of the 2016 presidential deal that elected Gen. Michel Aoun, and the volatile situation in Syria next door. There are five trends to watch in these elections:
Hariri-ism is done but not over
Nearly two decades ago, the Syrian regime and its Lebanese allies gerrymandered Beirut into three districts to weaken the electoral capabilities of then-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who came back swinging in 2000 and won 18 out of 19 parliamentary seats allocated to Beirut. Future Movement leader Saad Hariri is not expected to win more than half of these 19 seats in 2018. Over the past three decades, Rafik and Saad Hariri’s parliamentary blocs included non-Sunni deputies at a time when the major Christian political parties were marginalized in the political system. The current electoral law restricts the ability of Saad Hariri and all the principal leaders to have an oversized parliamentary bloc. These elections are partially about who will inherit the extra-parliamentary Sunni, Shiite and Christian seats that Hariri is about to give up. Moreover, Hariri is facing unprecedented competition across Lebanon from Sunni rivals, including from those who are close to Saudi Arabia. While Hariri is weaker than he was in 2009, the election outcome is expected to reinforce his indispensability as a premier in the current status quo. However, this indispensability could be put at risk, either by regional turmoil or by US-Saudi pressure on Hariri to directly confront Hezbollah.