The people of the Middle East, particularly Lebanese, Israelis, Palestinians, and their near neighbors are understandably living on a knife’s edge of uncertainty about what’s next ever since the killing of Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, 2024. It was a humiliation for the Iranians to have an honored terrorist guest assassinated in a high-security guest house amidst the celebratory inauguration of their new president, whose predecessor had been humiliatingly killed in the crash of a state-owned and controlled helicopter. Iranian leaders could hardly fume and bluster about their intended retaliation without suffering further loss of face.
Those of us without access to intelligence can only speculate, but what exactly is it that people think the Iranians are going to do? After their last big humiliation, the assassination of a senior IRGC commander and his immediate staff in Damascus in April, the Iranians launched a salvo of drones and missiles that Israel and neighboring states successfully parried. At the state-to-state level, Iran cannot sustain a fight with Israel. It is likely instead to pursue this phase of its campaign against Israel, which started on October 7, back again at the level of asymmetrical proxy war. That way, Iranian leaders have more advantages and fewer risks. Nonetheless, Hezbollah seems loath to escalate too aggressively; a full-blown war with Israel is hardly in the interest of its Iranian master. After all, Hezbollah’s arsenal was not built to defend Lebanon, but to deter Israel from attacking Iran.
https://thisisbeirut.com.lb/world/283179