Four simultaneous trends seem to define the war in Syria these days, which only becomes more complicated and difficult to resolve with every passing week. They are persistent fighting on the ground, continued fragmentation of the country into self-governed zones, a worsening humanitarian tragedy that plagues Syria and its neighbors, and intensifying efforts to seek a political resolution to the conflict. Every aspect of Syria today is frightening and tragic but also consequential for the region and the world. That is why it cannot be ignored, as were some other local wars in Yemen, Somalia or even Iraq.
Unlike other conflicts, though, it only gets worse and more intractable with time. Just in the past two weeks we have seen two significant developments reflecting ongoing trends: autonomous development of the Kurdish regions of northeast Syria and another burst of tens of thousands of refugees leaving the country amid intensified local battles and pouring into already saturated Lebanese border areas.
Two years ago, I wrote that Syria was three conflicts in one – a domestic rebellion for dignity and democracy; a regional cold war driven by Iran and Saudi Arabia; and a global confrontation between the United States and Russia primarily, but also comprising actors such as China, Turkey and France. Earlier this year I expanded this view to include other regional actors who have been deeply involved in the Syria situation, including Turkey, Iran, Israel, Hezbollah and pan-Islamic Salafist militant movements.