While the calls for President Bashar Assad to step down continue, in many respects the Syrian president has already lost power. Assad has become a figurehead as Iran has taken control of Syria’s regime and its praetorian military units, and is even manipulating sectarian dynamics in parts of the country.
That’s why the death of Mohammad Nassif last weekend had symbolic importance. Early on Nassif had been the link between the Islamic Republic and Syria, but it was a different Syria then. No less a criminal enterprise than today, Hafez Assad’s regime was yet more selfish about its sovereignty. For a time Bashar replicated this attitude, which, for instance, shaped Syria’s approach to Ayad Allawi after the Iraqi elections of 2010. Whereas Syria wanted Allawi to form a government, Iran successfully backed his rival, Nouri al-Maliki. This led to momentary tensions in the Iranian-Syrian alliance.
As the Assad regime lost ground in the aftermath of Syria’s 2011 uprising, however, political survival took precedence over principles of political affirmation. Syrian-Iranian interaction reverted completely to a relationship of dependency and domination, with Bashar Assad finding himself on the bottom.
As was their way in Iraq, the Iranians built up their power in Syria on two pillars: the effective partitioning of the country and the deployment of pro-Iranian militias. Partition weakened the credibility of the Assad regime, while virtually ensuring that the Alawite community would pursue a sectarian agenda in defense of its core zones of control, which only benefited Iran. The proliferation of militias allowed Tehran to create an alternative power structure to that of Syria’s regime, giving it the latitude to circumvent the Syrian authorities when needed.