Introduction and Analysis
Though the regime offensives backed by Russian airpower and Iranian-backed militias to supplement the manpower on the ground initially seemed to make little headway territorially, it is apparent that they have triggered manpower problems within the ranks of the rebels, most notably as several prominent leaders in a number of formations have been taken out. Combined with gradual regime advances in Aleppo and Latakia, these developments have prompted a number of mobilization calls and appeals for help. For example, in December 2015, Kata'ib Ansar al-Sham- one of the factions that have lost leaders in the recent offensives- issued a call for help in light of the high attrition being suffered on the Sahel [coastal] front. Sure enough, that statement proved to foreshadow the recent string of advances for the regime in Latakia, such that the insurgency now risks losing all footholds in the province.
In addition, and perhaps most controversially, the Idlib-based coalition Jaysh al-Fatah issued a general mobilization call very clearly advocating for foreign fighters. For factions with a more national framework, such as the Ikhwani Faylaq al-Sham, this call likely went too far, and so Faylaq al-Sham announced its withdrawal from Jaysh al-Fatah, ostensibly because Jaysh al-Fatah had fulfilled its objectives in Idlib and that the focus should be on the Aleppo fronts. However, this pretext is somewhat undermined by the fact that Jaysh al-Fatah has sent substantial reinforcements from Idlib to the south/west Aleppo countryside.