Hopes are low for the Syrian peace talks set to begin on Thursday in Geneva, but that may not matter much. As the war in Syria moves towards a strategic endgame, the faltering peace process has begun to drift away from its past focus on a political transition, a shift that will ultimately have major ramifications for the country’s future.
The results of the two preceding rounds of talks in the Kazakh capital of Astana have been somewhat underwhelming. Conceived of as a political track to complement the ceasefire declared by Russia, Turkey, and Iran on 30 December, last week’s round failed to even adopt a closing statement. While Moscow trumpets the signing of a trilateral truce-monitoring agreement, it appears to be another hollow statement of intent without a credible enforcement mechanism.
Astana’s role in the peace process is separate, but not unimportant. American diplomats (who attended as observers along with Jordan and UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura) seem content with letting Russia lead the way. Like other Western and Arab nations, they remain unwilling to give their full blessing to the Astana track, fearing it will be used by Russia and Iran to displace de Mistura’s UN-led process in Geneva.
Turkey, too, has signalled that the two tracks should be kept apart. “Astana has never been an alternative to Geneva,” Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said on Sunday, adding that although Astana has been “a good confidence-building measure and helpful to maintain a ceasefire”, the UN-led talks in Geneva remain “the main basis for the political solution and transition”.
Indeed, Geneva has been at the centre of international peace efforts since the Syrian conflict began in 2011.