Syria, where I lived a quarter of a century ago to do research on the country’s political economy, seems to be falling apart mainly because the political structures which I studied at that time have never really changed.
Bashar al-Assad, after inheriting power from his father 12 years ago, only wanted to modernize the system, never reform it. Regime security remains the highest priority: Power is concentrated in the hands of the president and his entourage, and is exercised in a specific form of authoritarianism that relies on confessional ties, selective inclusion through patronage and corruption, and heavy repression of dissent.
Rather than build a community that is based on citizenship and acknowledges the rich diversity of social, religious, ethnic, regional and political identities in Syria, the system has for decades restricted the political space, limiting political debate to private and secretive spheres and breeding sectarian animosities.
By deciding to meet the originally peaceful uprising with brutal force — the military or “security” solution in regime parlance — President Assad has himself brought upon the country the real threat of all-out sectarian war and potential acts of sectarian revenge against his own Alawite community if and when the regime collapses...