Turkey must beware the Syrian quagmire (Mohammed Ayoob- The Guardian)

Ankara risks being drawn into a conflict from which, unlike Saudi Arabia and the US, it cannot escape.

Turkey is in danger of being dragged deeper into the Syrian quagmire. The mood in the country is sombre after the cross-border shelling and loss of life on both sides. Over the past few months the near-unanimous enthusiasm for the support Turkey has given the Syrian opposition has gradually given way to a more reflective mood, as the negative consequences of such involvement have become increasingly clear.

Turkish backing for Syria's democratic movement was both idealistic and realistic. The ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) felt that its own legitimacy, which rested on its democratic credentials, could be seriously eroded if did not extend support to the movement next door. Ankara also calculated that its long-term economic and strategic interests were best served by supporting the opposition in the hope that transition in Syria would be quick, and the successor regime beholden to Turkey for its support. Ankara also wanted to send a message to Washington that – despite differences with the United States over Israel's occupation of Palestine and Iran's nuclear enrichment programme – it was still in the western camp.

For a while things seemed to go as planned; but then events took a very different turn. The Syrian democratic movement transmuted from a civil opposition to one of armed rebellion, with a number of groups – including Salafist jihadists armed by Saudi Arabia and Qatar – engaging in ruthless confrontation with the state's security forces, leading to the loss of thousands of lives. Moreover it became clear that Turkey, as well as other powers, had vastly underestimated the staying power of the Assad regime and its willingness to leave behind an anarchic mess rather than accept a smooth transition of power...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/oct/04/turkey-must-beware-syrian-quagmire