News.Az interviews Yasin Atlioglu, Turkish political scientist.
What has caused Turkey’s political activeness around events in Syria and Lebanon?
The processes that started in early 2011, called ‘Arab spring’ in the West have fully frustrated the Turkey’s policy in the region. In the light of actions by world superpowers, particularly, the United States and their western allies, Turkey has come to the state of observer over the processes in the Middle East. This deteriorated its relations with Syria, Iran and Russia with whom it had good relations just seven months ago.
All the same, permission by Ankara to place radar station in Turkey under pressure of the US government on the early prevention of the missile threat caused a great outrage in the region headed by Iran and Russia.
Several observers believe that in case Turkey fails the policy in Lebanon and Syria, it will lose its influence in the Arab world. Do you agree?
I fully share this opinion. The pro-western foreign political strategy of Turkey over the past months has already started to cause damage to its influence in the Arab world. The image of Turkish Premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan as charismatic leader, who has the influence in the Arab world, is being exaggerated by progovernmental mass media of Turkey. The recent judgments about the use of elements of neo-Ottomanism in the foreign policy of Turkey caused negative attitude of the Middle East. All the same, the actions by Turkey, as a Sunni country in the region, will influence strained relations between the religious trends, particularly between Sunnis and Shias and thus will have a negative influence on strengthening regional security. One of the main factors that promoted growth of Turkey’s influence in the Middle East was the equal attitude of the Turkish government to all religious minorities, as well as the striving to the resolution of conflicts from the position of the neutral side.
Disavowal of this policy by Turkey in early 2011 and the actions of the Turkish government in the region as the executer of the western policies and the Turkish representative’s action as an executer of western policies will pave the way to the quick loss of influence by Turkey. Anti-Israeli statements of Erdogan and intervention with Arab countries just raised his influence in the society.
Turkey demands support of Azerbaijan to its policy against Israel. Will it be right for Ankara to demand the same position in relation to Syria?
Turkey and Azerbaijan are fraternal countries. Both states have more advantages in the development of political and economic relations, and joint addressing of the challenges they face in the international arena. The depth of historical and cultural relations encourages the Government of Azerbaijan and Turkey to an alliance. However, please note that these two countries have different foreign policies. An example may be that Azerbaijan gives priority to relations with Turkey and Russia. During the development of the Turkish-Russian relations, the relationship of these three states, ie Russia, Azerbaijan and Turkey, become stable.
But Azerbaijan's relations with Russia are based on its own foreign policy interests of Baku. Therefore, if Azerbaijan part should not force Turkey to carry out the pro-Russian policy, Turkey should not expect from Azerbaijan to support it against Israel and Syria.
The transformation of the radical Islamist uprising in Syria in the civil war will affect security in the region. The collapse of state structures and chaos in Syria would have a direct impact on the internal stability and security of Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijani officials, providing full support to Turkey in the implementation of projects that affect the development and prosperity in the region, should distance from the uncertain and adventurous foreign policy pursued by the Turkish government in the region.
Can Azerbaijan tolerate worsening relations with Syria where it has normal ties?
Azerbaijan's foreign policy towards Syria for a number of political and economic reasons, has limited capabilities. In this regard, Syria can seem not so important country to Azerbaijan. But, as I said, the potential political and military crisis in Syria at first can affect the security and economic interests of Turkey and Iran, and then Azerbaijan.
Recently, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz stated possibility of termination of deliveries of Azerbaijani gas to Syria via Turkey. It is clear that the breach of security in the region cannot be about preserving the economic and commercial activities The statement of the Turkish Energy Minister Yildiz coincided with the political rhetoric of the Turkish government against Syria. Therefore, it becomes apparent that the processes around Turkey and Azerbaijan have a direct impact on them. Unless Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia and Syria deepen mutually beneficial political and economic relations, it would be impossible to achieve prosperity and peace in the region. The increase of tension and competition among these five countries will serve the US and European influence in the region.
N.H.
News.Az
The processes that started in early 2011, called ‘Arab spring’ in the West have fully frustrated the Turkey’s policy in the region. In the light of actions by world superpowers, particularly, the United States and their western allies, Turkey has come to the state of observer over the processes in the Middle East. This deteriorated its relations with Syria, Iran and Russia with whom it had good relations just seven months ago.
All the same, permission by Ankara to place radar station in Turkey under pressure of the US government on the early prevention of the missile threat caused a great outrage in the region headed by Iran and Russia.
Several observers believe that in case Turkey fails the policy in Lebanon and Syria, it will lose its influence in the Arab world. Do you agree?
I fully share this opinion. The pro-western foreign political strategy of Turkey over the past months has already started to cause damage to its influence in the Arab world. The image of Turkish Premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan as charismatic leader, who has the influence in the Arab world, is being exaggerated by progovernmental mass media of Turkey. The recent judgments about the use of elements of neo-Ottomanism in the foreign policy of Turkey caused negative attitude of the Middle East. All the same, the actions by Turkey, as a Sunni country in the region, will influence strained relations between the religious trends, particularly between Sunnis and Shias and thus will have a negative influence on strengthening regional security. One of the main factors that promoted growth of Turkey’s influence in the Middle East was the equal attitude of the Turkish government to all religious minorities, as well as the striving to the resolution of conflicts from the position of the neutral side.
Disavowal of this policy by Turkey in early 2011 and the actions of the Turkish government in the region as the executer of the western policies and the Turkish representative’s action as an executer of western policies will pave the way to the quick loss of influence by Turkey. Anti-Israeli statements of Erdogan and intervention with Arab countries just raised his influence in the society.
Turkey demands support of Azerbaijan to its policy against Israel. Will it be right for Ankara to demand the same position in relation to Syria?
Turkey and Azerbaijan are fraternal countries. Both states have more advantages in the development of political and economic relations, and joint addressing of the challenges they face in the international arena. The depth of historical and cultural relations encourages the Government of Azerbaijan and Turkey to an alliance. However, please note that these two countries have different foreign policies. An example may be that Azerbaijan gives priority to relations with Turkey and Russia. During the development of the Turkish-Russian relations, the relationship of these three states, ie Russia, Azerbaijan and Turkey, become stable.
But Azerbaijan's relations with Russia are based on its own foreign policy interests of Baku. Therefore, if Azerbaijan part should not force Turkey to carry out the pro-Russian policy, Turkey should not expect from Azerbaijan to support it against Israel and Syria.
The transformation of the radical Islamist uprising in Syria in the civil war will affect security in the region. The collapse of state structures and chaos in Syria would have a direct impact on the internal stability and security of Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijani officials, providing full support to Turkey in the implementation of projects that affect the development and prosperity in the region, should distance from the uncertain and adventurous foreign policy pursued by the Turkish government in the region.
Can Azerbaijan tolerate worsening relations with Syria where it has normal ties?
Azerbaijan's foreign policy towards Syria for a number of political and economic reasons, has limited capabilities. In this regard, Syria can seem not so important country to Azerbaijan. But, as I said, the potential political and military crisis in Syria at first can affect the security and economic interests of Turkey and Iran, and then Azerbaijan.
Recently, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz stated possibility of termination of deliveries of Azerbaijani gas to Syria via Turkey. It is clear that the breach of security in the region cannot be about preserving the economic and commercial activities The statement of the Turkish Energy Minister Yildiz coincided with the political rhetoric of the Turkish government against Syria. Therefore, it becomes apparent that the processes around Turkey and Azerbaijan have a direct impact on them. Unless Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia and Syria deepen mutually beneficial political and economic relations, it would be impossible to achieve prosperity and peace in the region. The increase of tension and competition among these five countries will serve the US and European influence in the region.
N.H.
News.Az