It is difficult to predict how the natural gas discoveries in Eastern Mediterranean will impact an already complex regional inter-relation system. Signs of mounting tension around the offshore potential resources are not new. If this tension occurs in the current early phase of exploring and extraction, it should also be sufficient to alert the international community to what the future may hold in a region where armed conflicts are easy to erupt.
The parties concerned are Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Turkey, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. Just mentioning the names of these countries together in anything, not to mention a wealth potentially valued at billions of dollars, is enough to raise concern. Varying levels of access to offshore gas resources, or even awareness of it, put the players at different distances from the point of open verbal hostility around this specific issue. The civil war in Syria and its threats to Lebanon, the last exceptional four years in Egypt, and the unsettled future of Gaza are but some factors in what kept the lights of this contentious issue dimmed for the time being.
Yet, it might be a good idea to start thinking of an international arbitration body devoted to thoroughly, and exclusively, researching this issue and getting ready to look at the certain conflicting claims that will emerge and are emerging already. The debate in some of the region’s countries about a maritime border demarcation may take time due to the particularity of the situation of Cyprus and Gaza.
In Lebanon, for example, some heated discussions rise from time to time with voices calling to contest the Israel-Cyprus agreement regarding division of the water areas between the two as it is perceived to trespass on Lebanese water territories, particularly the areas facing South of Lebanon, the strong base of Hezbollah. Some views consider the agreement a blatant aggression on Lebanese rights and an attempt to impose a fait accompli on other countries of the region.